Can India Still Make the WTC Final? Scenarios After Melbourne Loss

India’s chances of reaching the World Test Championship (WTC) final took a big hit after losing to Australia in the Melbourne Test by 184 runs. This loss dropped India’s points percentage (PCT) to 52.77 from 55.89, and they are now in third place. India has 114 points from 18 matches in this WTC cycle, with 9 wins, 7 losses, and 2 draws.

Australia boosted their chances of making the final by winning their 10th match in the cycle, raising their PCT to 61.45. South Africa has already secured a spot in the final, which will be held at Lord’s in June 2025, after winning against Pakistan in Centurion.

India now faces a tough challenge. If Australia wins or draws the final Test in Sydney, starting January 3, India will be out of the race.

What India Needs to Do:

India must win the Sydney Test to stay in the race. If India wins, they will also need Sri Lanka to beat Australia 2-0. This would push India’s PCT to 55.26 and lower Australia’s to 54.26. If Australia draws even one match against Sri Lanka, they will have a better PCT than India. If India loses or draws the Sydney Test, they will not qualify.

Updated WTC Standings:
South Africa (Qualified): 66.67%
Australia: 61.45%
India: 52.77%
New Zealand: 48.21%
Sri Lanka: 45.45%
England: 43.18%
Bangladesh: 31.25%
Pakistan: 30.30%